UPDATE, SATURDAY 12PM: The Clarence River is now dropping at Grafton after rising above the moderate flood level of 3.6m and peaking at 4.37m between 9.49pm and 10.46pm on Friday night.
The river is now at 3.79m and dropping slowly (classified ‘steady’ by Bureau of Meteorology).
The photos below were taken by Clarence Media at 4.30pm when the water level was about 30cm below the eventual peak later in the evening.
However, the lull is expected to be short-lived, with another severe weather warning issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Residents in the Northern Rivers Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands regions can expect heavy to locally intense rainfall to develop on Sunday.
The projected rainfall forecast over the next 24 hours has increased markedly since this time yesterday, with Yamba to receive up to 80mm on Saturday and 150mm on Sunday, while Grafton can expect as much as 80mm by 9am tomorrow morning and 120mm on Sunday.
3-DAY FORECAST
Grafton: Saturday 40-80mm, Sunday 70-120mmmm, Monday 3-10mm
Yamba: Saturday 40-80mmmm, Sunday 100-150mm, Monday 3-10mm
The worsening conditions are the result of a surface trough over southeast Queensland deepening into a low pressure system in response to a strong upper low later tonight. This low is expected to track southward into northeastern New South Wales on Sunday producing heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 80 and 110mm are likely, reaching up to 150 mm over coastal areas and ranges.
From Sunday afternoon locally intense rainfall leading to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding and potential for landslide and debris across roads is possible with six-hourly rainfall totals up to 250mm possible.
Locations which may be affected include Grafton, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Coffs Harbour, Lismore, Byron Bay, Ballina, Casino, Kyogle, Sawtell and Dorrigo.
RAINFALL TOTALS in mm (24 hours to 9am Saturday)
- Nymboida         34
- Glenreagh        34
- Grafton (Trenayr)Â Â 26
- Pillar Valley       23
- Lawrence        19
- Baryulgil          15
- Wooli            14
- Grafton Airport    14
- South Grafton     13
- Lilydale           12
- Yamba            11
- Minnie Water      10
- Coaldale          7
Moderate flooding is currently occurring at Coutts Crossing where the Orara River peaked overnight, with minor flooding at Glenreagh and falling.
UPDATE, FRIDAY 12PM: The Clarence River at Grafton has surpassed minor flood level and is expected to reach the moderate flood level of 3.6m later this afternoon and peak at around 4m overnight.
Minor flooding is occurring at Ulmarra and is likely at Maclean on Friday night as large volumes continue to flow downstream from the heavy rainfall experienced in the catchment throughout Wednesday and Thursday, with water levels at Rogans Bridge and Lilydale Bridge still rising.
However, the situation is not as dire as it could have been after the Bureau of Meteorology warned of isolated falls up to and exceeding 300mm along the eastern seaboard between Coffs Harbour and Fraser Island overnight.
Fortunately, the Clarence Valley region largely missed out on the torrential rainfall and, as such, levels further upstream in the Clarence River at Baryulgil and the Mann River at Jackadgery have already started to fall, which may provide temporary respite to the rising flood conditions downstream.
However, more intense rainfall is expected in the Clarence Valley across the next three days and residents are urged to continue monitoring conditions.
3-DAY FORECAST
Grafton: Friday 10-20mm, Saturday 10-30mm, Sunday 10-25mm
Yamba: Friday 10-20mm, Saturday 20-40mm, Sunday 40-80mm
RAINFALL TOTALS in mm (24 hours to 9am Friday)
- Lilydale           79
- Nymboida         68
- Pillar Valley       63
- Coaldale          57
- Glenreagh         54
- Grafton Airport    49
- South Grafton     45
- Browns Knob      38
- Lawrence         36
- Baryulgil          34
- Grafton (Trenayr)Â Â 32
- Minnie Water      28
- Yamba            6
- Wooli             6
Moderate flooding is currently occurring at Glenreagh, where river levels peaked at 9.65m at 4.50am Friday morning, and the main flood peak is approaching Coutts Crossing, where moderate flooding is also occurring.
SEE ALSO: Latest road closure information for the Clarence Valley
UPDATE, 9PM: Severe weather warnings are current for all coastal areas from Coffs Harbour to Fraser Island with heavy to intense rainfall and damaging winds predicted.
BOM meteorologist Dean Narramore said flash and riverine flooding was likely across many regions with widespread rainfalls of 100 to 150mm expected.
“We’re likely to see very heavy rainfall set up in this area tonight, with widespread 100 t0 200 millimetres possible with isolated falls up to 300 millimetres and possibly even higher than that quite likely,” Mr Narramore said.
“Now, this is a dangerous setup as very heavy rainfall falls over already saturated soils, and that means flash and riverine flooding is likely with dangerous, life threatening flash flooding also possible.
“This kind of rainfall over highly populated areas is likely to lead to inundation of homes properties and businesses, particularly those who live on or near any rivers and creeks. So please be careful in the coming 24 to 36 hours.”
ABOVE: The swollen Mann River at the junction with the Clarence River at Coombadjha on Thursday afternoon, 24th February, 2022. Photos: Graham Mackie
ORIGINAL STORY, 12.30PM: The first signs of a significant flood event for the Clarence Valley catchment have emerged with several tributaries recording sharp rises in water levels this morning (Feb 24).
The Clarence River at Rogans Bridge exceeded the 2m major flood level by midday on Thursday, 24th February, 2022. Image: Floods Near Me
Gauges have continued to rise in the Orara, Nymboida and Mann rivers over the past 36 hours, while the upper reaches of the Clarence River have experienced rapidly increasing levels this morning due to widespread heavy rains last night.
Meanwhile, there is no respite on the horizon, with significant rainfall forecast every day until Sunday, and a wet week again next week.
The Bureau of Meteorology updated the Orara River to a moderate flood warning at Glenreagh and Coutts Crossing at 12.38pm today, and a flood watch for the Clarence River.
While scenes do not look unusual in Grafton at present – apart from significant inundation – water is likely to reach the minor flood level of 2.1m at Grafton in the coming days.
The Clarence River at Lilydale Bridge has risen significantly over the past 24 hours. Image: Floods Near Me
The increase in the high tide peak of the Clarence River at Grafton of just under one metre at 6.30am this morning was less than 30cm higher than the corresponding high tide yesterday. But upstream there are plenty of indications that is all about to change.
While the Clarence River at Grafton is yet to show significant changes in water levels, the community is bracing for possible floods with huge amounts of water flowing downstream from both its northern and southern tributaries. Image: Floods Near Me
RAINFALL TOTALS in mm (24 hours to 9am Thursday)
- Whiporie          209
- Lilydale           120
- Coaldale          118
- Lawrence         117
- Browns Knob      115
- Baryulgil          95
- Minnie Water      91
- Yamba            84
- Glenreagh         79
- Grafton (Trenayr)Â Â 76
- Grafton Airport    75
- Pillar Valley       74
- South Grafton     67
- Nymboida         66
- Wooli             65
- Tabulam          57
Rogans Bridge has already gone under with levels exceeding the 1.7m moderate flood level at about 10am this morning and the 2m major flood level an hour and a half later.
Further upstream levels have risen on a steep trajectory at Lilydale Bridge, Barygulgil and Tabulam since last night, according to Floods Near Me data.
The Clarence River at Baryulgil has risen significantly since last night. Image: Floods Near Me
While the Clarence River started filling up rapidly overnight due to heavy rainfall to the north, the southern tributaries which feed into the Clarence have been steadily rising since Tuesday night 24 hours earlier.
The Mann River at Jackadgery was at 1.455m at 2am Wednesday and had reached 3.7m by 11am today.
The Orara River surpassed the minor flood level of 5m at Glenreagh at 9am this morning, and has already risen 6.7 metres in the past 24 hours at Bawdens Bridge.
River levels of the Clarence River’s southern tributaries, including the flooded Orara River at Bawdens Bridge, started rising in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Image: Floods Near Me
Meanwhile the Nymboida River downstream of the Nymboida Weir has risen almost three metres in 24 hours.
Flood warnings are current for the Tweed, Brunswick, Richmond, Wilsons, Orara, Bellinger and Nambucca catchments.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology this weather event is being caused by a surface trough near the northeast coast of New South Wales deepening the response to a strong upper trough moving slowly eastward across southern Queensland. The surface trough is forecast to remain slow-moving through Thursday and Friday, producing areas of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms, with the potential to cause riverine flooding.
A severe weather warning for heavy rainfall has been issued for people in the Northern Rivers and parts of Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands.
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Click here for the latest flood and weather warnings.
Click here for the latest rainfall and river level information.
Flood Safety Advice:
- This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.
- Flood warnings will be issued if minor flood level is expected to be exceeded at key sites.
- FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au
- For emergency assistance call the SES on 132 500.
- For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.
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For heavens sake put up larger photos so ratepayers can see what is happening!